Weather Reports And Sports Handicapping



How Much of​ an​ Element is​ Weather in​ Handicapping?

Even those few football fans who don’t gamble surely are aware of​ Brett Favre’s remarkable winning streak in​ sub 34 degree weather or​ Tampa’s ineptitude when the​ kickoff temperature is​ below 40 on​ the​ archaic fahrenheit scale. it​ though is​ not just fair but imperative for handicappers to​ note most of​ those Favre games were at​ home where he was rarely beaten and Tampa’s incompetence was compiled when they were a​ doormat playing on​ the​ road.

As far as​ weather benefitting one team or​ the​ other,​ more times than not the​ old adage of​ both teams having to​ play in​ the​ same conditions bodes true. This is​ not to​ say though weather won’t decide the​ spread or​ SU outcome. Many teams are built for their home field and extreme weather in​ a​ battle of​ dichotomous styles will without question be a​ factor.

Come playoff time and even late in​ the​ regular season we​ will hear pundits and handicappers question the​ ability of​ dome teams to​ win or​ even make it​ to​ the​ Super Bowl. Atlanta making it​ in​ 1999 and the​ Rams winning it​ all in​ 2000 did take some steam out of​ those convinced of​ a​ dome field disadvantage but both teams were able to​ avoid having to​ play in​ nasty outdoor conditions.

There is​ one major factor missing from the​ aforesaid critics. we​ would actually agree that dome teams clearly built for dome play are at​ a​ huge disadvantage in​ nasty outdoor conditions. we​ certainly don’t disagree that the​ Colts horrible defense needs to​ be improved and nobody can question the​ genius of​ Bill Belichick. But the​ Colts offense is​ much more high powered than they are great and we​ question the​ Colts ability to​ beat any team in​ northern winter weather. the​ same was true for Minnesota in​ the​ Randy Moss era.

The exception to​ the​ "both teams play in​ the​ same conditions” rule would be high powered offenses.
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Ike Reese said. "Sloppy-weather games are tailor-made for running teams. When you have to​ put the​ ball up,​ you're going to​ have to​ worry about sloppy passes,​ balls getting fumbled."

The famed Dolphins of​ the​ early 70s which went to​ the​ Super Bowl three straight years,​ winning two including the​ perfect season are a​ perfect example of​ a​ team that could win in​ any conditions. in​ fact un-Miami like conditions fit perfectly into their smash mouth ball control style.

Teams custom built for their climate or​ stadium of​ course will be most effected by conditions that deviate from their comfort zone. But a​ road team’s style is​ more quantifying than their city of​ origin or​ whether or​ not there is​ a​ roof on​ their stadium insofar as​ handicapping weather conditions.

The single biggest mistake handicappers make is​ thinking potential weather advantages benefit mostly warm climate teams playing in​ northern cities. No less of​ an​ authority on​ the​ subject would be Dan Marino. He played his high school and college ball in​ Pittsburgh and spent a​ Hall-of-Fame career in​ Miami,​ but with many a​ road game in​ New York,​ Foxborough,​ Buffalo and many other cold-weather cities.

Marino states emphatically that is​ tougher for a​ cold weather team to​ play in​ a​ hot weather city than visa versa. Ask any chad hanging seasoned citizen New York transplant in​ south Florida and they will tell you there is​ an​ acclimation period adjusting to​ the​ much warmer weather. But eventually one gets quite used to​ it.

Fans of​ international soccer will note how for example the​ USA soccer team admits the​ brutal conditions of​ Guatemala and the​ Central American countries is​ a​ huge disadvantage for the​ Yankees and adaptation is​ difficult.

As a​ point of​ fact,​ it’s easier for the​ heavily padded American football players to​ compensate for cold conditions than it​ is​ for the​ blistering heat of​ Florida,​ Texas or​ Arizona. Yet the​ handicapper seems to​ concern himself more so with the​ December frozen tundra. This is​ not the​ case at​ the​ Center of​ the​ Handicapping Universe.





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