Sports Picks What Goes Up Must Come Down

What Goes Up Must Come Down
Posting boards have very limited value as​ far as​ worthwhile handicapping information. However every now and​ then I peruse them for​ entertainment, at​ least once in​ a​ while a​ seed can be planted for​ topics for​ our tid-bets. Also to​ be brutally honest, it=s a​ great source for​ contrarian datum as​ there are plenty of​ Joey Bagodonuts giving their point of​ view.

One of​ the​ most entertaining posters happens to​ be a​ vocal not to​ mention self righteous critic of​ systems. He also loves to​ vent his spleen by whining every one of​ his losers was Aodds defying occurrences@. Therein lays a​ direct cause and​ effect. One thing that is​ odds defying is​ how many times I actually had the​ other side 'the wrong yet winning play he=d argue) because of​ statistically overwhelming system plays.

The reason is​ that quality handicappers can anticipate when over achieving teams will level off or​ when underachievers will regain their form. Luckily the​ algorithmic programs have shown time and​ time again there is​ a​ common thread of​ parameters that indicate when the​ gambler can Abuy low and​ sell high@ so to​ speak.

As we mentioned in​ previous articles our most fruitful systems disproportionately favor going with sinking and/or bad teams 'and pitchers in​ MLB) and/or against rising and/or top level teams. My clients pay me to​ defy the​ odds. Fortunately there are computer programs that have found indisputable common threads to​ lend support to​ me in​ doing just that.

I have been handicapping a​ long time and​ even before the​ Information Age revolutionized what we do, I had a​ great deal of​ success with educated instincts. Basically when a​ team 'and pitcher in​ baseball) was in​ Auncharted waters@ was when the​ reverse of​ fortune would occur.

An example would be a​ perennial underdog becomes a​ significant favorite based predominately on recent rather than long-term data. the​ same two teams with the​ same personnel met six weeks earlier in​ the​ same location, yet the​ four-point dog has become the​ two-point favorite. in​ that example in​ most cases going against the​ newbie chalk is​ the​ way to​ go. in​ the​ NBA we see it​ happen with sides and​ totals within one series.

But luckily there are enough non-believers who think anytime a​ seemingly superior team loses to​ the​ inferior team it=s merely an​ Aodds defying occurrence@. They keep the​ books in​ business for​ the​ more learned.

Last Impressions: Poison for​ the​ Square Player

I'm sure you've seen me on the​ top sports betting blog mention previously that my only other passion besides sports foreboding is​ dining. the​ most common term assigned to​ restaurant nerds like me is​ Afoodie@ essentially the​ wiseguys of​ restaurants. We know that even the​ best eating establishments can=t go Aundefeated@. the​ kitchen will occasionally put out a​ sub-par meal or​ the​ wait staff gives bad service. if​ it​ happens to​ me, I won=t disregard all the​ great opinions I=ve heard from trusted sources. Many of​ my favorite restaurants I may not have returned if​ I based my patronage solely on my first experience.

However I often hear non-foodies 'the square eater) say they tried a​ highly touted restaurant and​ were disappointed. All the​ contrary opinions they=ve heard become irrelevant. it​ matters not to​ them that the​ chef may have been on vacation or​ the​ restaurant got slammed with business at​ once and​ an​ off-night resulted. Any and​ all extenuating circumstances and​ opposing testimonials are immaterial. Their aberrational experience nullifies all other facts.

This is​ exactly what the​ uncultivated gambler does. AI saw them on TV the​ other night and​ they looked terrible@ is​ a​ justification I have heard so many times as​ the​ singular rationalization for​ the​ great unwashed betting a​ specific play. Long term data becomes inconsequential to​ what the​ innumerate bettor eye witnessed.

We just alluded to​ extreme line changes that can happen in​ NBA playoff series with the​ only dynamic that changed significantly is​ the​ results of​ the​ one or​ a​ few games previous. When there are dare I say it, Aodds defying occurrences@ it​ often results in​ overcompensation that becomes a​ goldmine for​ sharp players to​ exploit.

The 2018 NBA Finals are a​ quintessential example. Game 1 had a​ total of​ 176. a​ minuscule 155 points were scored. Anyone with even a​ primordial knowledge of​ public betting tendencies knew the​ masses would henceforth salivate over betting the​ under. Pre-emptive of​ this, the​ oddsmakers posted the​ total in​ Game 2 at​ 170'. as​ we=ve mentioned many times the​ lower the​ total, the​ more significant a​ variation is. in​ other words a​ total moving four points to​ 220 is​ much less of​ consequence that a​ four-point move to​ 170. Hence this 5' point move from one game to​ the​ next in​ the​ Pistons-Spurs was whopping. the​ next five games went over the​ total with the​ over/under never rising above 173. Game 7 saw the​ highest total since the​ opening game thanks to​ five overs. it​ went under.

As is​ often the​ case the​ five lowest totals went over and​ the​ two highest went under. the​ oddsmakers don=t blunder very often. Temporary abnormalities in​ game results are much more common. Full knowledge of​ this simple fact is​ imperative when we mull over short term results that contradict the​ more dependable long-range.

The cure is​ to​ not have your basic cognitive process blinded by one game that you watched from start to​ finish. Long term data is​ a​ much better representation.

Put Charles in​ Charge
Charles Barkley at​ least had the​ courage to​ state the​ obvious when NBA Commissioner David Stern ruled out an​ NBA franchise in​ Las Vegas as​ long as​ Nevada allows NBA betting.

I just think they're hypocrites. People are going to​ bet on sports. Vegas deserves an​ NBA team and​ I hope they get one here. it​ should have been done already. Gambling and​ sports go together. That's the​ reason football is​ probably the​ most popular sport.

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